Tuesday, November 26, 2013

Odds

In Roulette there are 36 numbers...plus a zero and a double zero. So, 38 possibilities. The pay off is 1:35 on hitting a given number. So if you covered every single number, betting $38, you are guaranteed to hit and win $35...thus losing $3 every spin. If you cover 37 numbers, then you only lose $2 but you also have a 1:37 chance of losing everything. And if you cover 36 numbers then you will lose $1 unless the ball lands in the two numbers you didn't cover. Cover 35 numbers and you break even...with 3 chances to lose everything.

Tonight, after eating a $25 buffet of fried ravioli and delicious broccoli soup, I covered 30 numbers...leaving 8 numbers uncovered...this is only feasible in a computerized speed roulette table because it takes too long to put a chip on every number in real roulette not to mention you have to climb over every pensioner pissing away her social security check for free mixed drinks. In computerized roulette the wheel and ball is still physical but you place bets on a screen and you never touch the germ ridden chips that caused me to be grievously ill this past week.

I started with $20, betting $0.25 every number, pretty much randomly chosen by my fingers. My total bet was $7.50. The payoff would be $8.75...for a profit of $1.25. I figured I had almost no chance to lose*...and decided to quit when I had doubled my bank. You can either bet in a way that has the odds against you, so you are praying a single number hits...or bet in a way that has the odds on your side so you pray a couple numbers don't hit. Let's see how this played out...

The first spin I hit #14. So my bank was $21.25. I did a dance on the smoky casino carpet with horseshoe patterns, replete with dusty losers...in pitiful Tuesday dress, the quiet sounds of distress and desperation filling the cancerous air.


I hit the "recall" button on the screen and it repeated my bets.
The next number was #4 and it was one of the eight numbers I didn't cover. That's 8:38 odds to lose and I got beat.
"Really??" cried Oggy as his digital bank dropped to $13.75.
I stabbed the recall button with a resentful finger...
The next number was #4 again...and I hadn't added it so I lost again.
8 numbers uncovered and it hits twice in a row?? I've got like an 80% chance to win but still lose??
I said nothing, grinding my lockjaw swollen face, a middle aged waitress with wash-in hair coloring shuffled up to me, "Kin I git you anythang, Honey?"
"Yeah, how about a winning number??"
She shuffled off without smiling as my bank dwindled to $6.25.
I hit "recall" again and the screen flashed "Not Enough Funds"
So I manually entered a bet of $5 spread over 20 numbers.
Next number was #10, which I had inexplicably placed between the #10 and #11 line (the computer touch screen was to blame) so it's a split bet and only paid like $4...so I lost $2.25.
I placed another bet, trying to conserve by only betting a few numbers I considered "lucky".
None of them hit and my bank dropped to $1.75, not enough to place a minimum bet...so I placed it all in the digital tip jar for the spinner who went by the name "First Lady"**
My back ached as I limped out into the freezing rain.
I thought, in my best Rodney Dangerfield voice, "The only time I was up today was in the elevator." 
The only sound was tires on wet pavement.

I think the way to play is to work as a team...I will play 30 numbers and you cover the other 8...then your bet would be only $8 to win $35...and since I'm the most unlucky son of a bitch in the world you will be rich by the end of the night as long as I can keep betting on all the numbers that won't hit. The reason that won't work is because I'll eventually have to borrow money and it will become a revolving wallet syndrome. Bullshit!

Note: The only other proven strategy with roulette is to simplify it by betting strictly black or red. Just bet red or black and every time you lose you double your bet. You will eventually go broke or you will win the amount of your original bet. Example: If you start off with a $5 bet and lose, you then bet $10. If you lose again you must bet $20. If you lose you must bet then $40. And if you finally win then your payout will be $80, but you just lost $75 in order to win that $80, so you profit $5. But if you lose then you must wager $160 in order to profit $5. And if you lose again then you must wager $320 to win $5. At that point you have lost 6 straight times and maybe gambling isn't your cup of tea because you will now have to wager $640 in order to hopefully profit $5. And the question is: Why the fuck did you bring almost $700 to a casino with a strategy to win $5? It's a pathetic way to spend your time. I'm sure people have lost hundreds of thousands of dollars using this strategy.

*Actually, the odds are still around 1:4.75 that I would lose...even with 30 numbers covered...so I've got more like a 78% chance of winning. I guess those are good odds if you aren't Oggy Bleacher.

**When she introduced herself I said, "Well, I hope to be The President."
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Man in the Van by Oggy Bleacher is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 3.0 Unported License.